TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/042291/0422001.000

Text File | 1992-08-28 | 5.6 KB | 124 lines

                                                                                WORLD, Page 44

CHINA

For Sale: Tools of Destruction


Beijing's missile and nuclear-reactor deals defy arms-control
efforts and imperil relations with Washington

By BRUCE W. NELAN -- Reported by Jaime A. FlorCruz/Beijing and
Jay Peterzell/Washington


    Even if China raised no cheers for George Bush's concept
of a new world order, it did not hinder allied action against
Iraq during the gulf war. Its acquiescence, though often
reluctant, included abstaining in a key vote in the United
Nations Security Council. Now that the war is over, however,
Beijing is breaking ranks on at least one front. New evidence
indicates that the Chinese are peddling missiles and nuclear
technology to Third World customers in defiance of multilateral
efforts to ban such sales.

    Beijing's experts have secretly built a nuclear reactor
that is now nearing completion in the Algerian desert, American
officials say. U.S. intelligence has also learned that China has
sent Pakistan parts for its M-11 missile system, which can
propel an 1,100-lb. warhead 180 miles, and is negotiating the
sale to Syria of its M-9 missile, with a range of 375 miles.
With the Chinese missiles, Pakistan could target major cities
and military installations in India, and Syria could put all of
Israel under threat.

    Mobile launchers for the M-11 arrived in Pakistan last
month along with dummy missile frames for practice launches.
Pakistani air force technicians are now undergoing training in
China. Both of the Chinese missiles are considered more accurate
and reliable than the Soviet-designed Scuds that Iraq rained on
Israel and Saudi Arabia during the war.

    Washington's evidence on the reactor in Algeria comes from
satellite photographs and other intelligence data. "Most of the
structure is finished," says a U.S. official. "We don't know if
any nuclear fuel is there. We don't think it is in operation."
What worries the watchers is that the reactor was built in
secret and that its capacity -- estimated at between 15 and 40
megawatts -- is too small for generating electricity but too
large for research. The likely conclusion, they say, is that its
purpose is to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons.

    If China covertly delivers nuclear fuel to Algeria or
transfers M-9 missiles to Syria, it is violating specific,
public commitments. The sale of missiles to Pakistan would not
break any formal Chinese pledges but would overstep the
guidelines set by the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)
agreed on by 15 countries. Even though China is not a party to
that agreement, under U.S. law the violation could trigger
economic sanctions against Beijing.

    The Chinese Foreign Ministry's traditional reply to
reports of such sales is that they are "utterly groundless." One
reason for U.S. National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft's
controversial visit to Beijing in December 1989 was his effort
to head off the M-9 sale to Syria. He got a general promise that
China would not sell medium-range missiles to Middle East
countries and a specific statement that China had no plans to
sell the M-9 to Syria.

    Asked last week about the nuclear-reactor project, a
Foreign Ministry official in Beijing said, "We have never heard
of that," and promptly changed the subject. Even in public,
Chinese leaders make little pretense of being serious about
controlling missiles and conventional armaments. They repeat
pious slogans about eliminating nuclear weapons but otherwise
imply that they will do what they wish with their "prudent and
responsible" arms sales.

    China never signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty
and did not take part in the recent MTCR conference in Tokyo.
Because China did not attend, says Foreign Minister Qian Qichen,
"it is not committed to implementing the agreement."

    In China's faltering economy, the military has strong
incentives to sell weapons abroad, even if it causes political
problems. "When an arms deal happens to clash with the country's
foreign policy," explains a Chinese defense analyst, "the
military may operate independently, leaving damage control to
the government." Some experts also believe the generals have had
more political influence over such decisions since they crushed
the pro-democracy movement by rolling tanks into Tianan men
Square in June 1989.

    China's defense budget is so low -- officially just in
excess of $6 billion for 1991 -- that the 3.2 million-member
People's Liberation Army has for years raised extra money by
producing consumer goods for sale at home and expensive weaponry
for customers abroad. The defense establishment has thus become
a major hard-currency earner, though its overseas sales to Third
World countries fell from $4.7 billion in 1987 to $1.1 billion
in 1989.

    The pressure to modernize the arsenal by raising money
through arms sales is stronger than ever. Chinese commanders
were shaken by the performance of U.S. high-tech hardware in the
gulf war. Just three weeks ago the government decided to
increase defense spending 12%.

    No matter who is making the decisions in Beijing, China's
current recklessness is leading toward confrontation. The U.S.
asked Beijing last month for an explanation of the Algerian
reactor project but so far has received no reply. If the Chinese
continue on their present course and complete the deals with
Algeria and Syria, relations between Washington and Beijing
could become chillier than at any time since before Richard
Nixon first went to China.